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Inverse statistics and misperception of exponential growth
2 references·16 citing·35 second hop
Inverse statistics and misperception of exponential growth (1977)Inverse statistics and misperception of e…Misperception of exponential growth (1975)Misperception of exponential …Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Availability: A heuristic for…Individual preferences and the exponential growth bias (2017)Individual preferences and th…The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products (2014)The challenges of pre-launch …Growth and Decline of Assets: On Biased Judgments of Asset Accumulation and Investment Decisions (2014)Growth and Decline of Assets:…Going Critical: Perspective and Proportion in the Epistemology of Rob Kling1 (2007)Going Critical: Perspective a…Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature (1996)Judgemental and statistical t…Influence of age and gender on estimates of long-term financial growth functions (1995)Influence of age and gender o…Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting (1994)Heuristics, biases and improv…Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research (1993)Improving judgmental time ser…Feedback and the forecasting of exponential change (1991)Feedback and the forecasting …Judgmental extrapolation and the salience of change (1990)Judgmental extrapolation and …Toward Intelligent Decision Support Systems: An Artificially Intelligent Statistician (1986)Toward Intelligent Decision S…The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960–1984 (1986)The Ombudsman: Research on Fo…Perception of changes in the cost of living (1984)Perception of changes in the …Intuitive Time-Series Extrapolation (1982)Intuitive Time-Series Extrapo…Extrapolation of exponential time series is not enhanced by having more data points (1978)Extrapolation of exponential …Intuitive extrapolation of a growth function (1977)Intuitive extrapolation of a …On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)A Study of the Relationship Between Decision Model Naturalness and Performance (1989)Judgmental forecasting with interactive forecasting support systems (1996)Adaptive decision support systems (1997)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)The Analytic Hierarchy Process (1985)Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters (2000)Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment (2000)Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning (2009)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice (2003)Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football (2005)The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review (2018)Statistical principles in experimental design. (1962)Intuitive Prediction of Growth (1978)Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information – A review of the literature (2011)Man as an intuitive statistician. (1967)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Learning in and about complex systems (1994)Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years (2006)The sciences of science communication (2013)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations. (1958)The psychology of interpersonal relations. (1958)Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments (2007)Mortgage timing (2009)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)New product forecasting models (1988)Research needs in forecasting (1988)Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison (1992)Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals (1989)Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts (2002)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability9,980 cited
  • 1975Misperception of exponential growth293 cited

Cited by

  • 1990Judgmental extrapolation and the salience of change203 cited
  • 1996Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature177 cited
  • 1982Intuitive Time-Series Extrapolation139 cited
  • 1993Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research103 cited
  • 1986The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960–198484 cited
  • 1978Extrapolation of exponential time series is not enhanced by having more data points83 cited
  • 1986Toward Intelligent Decision Support Systems: An Artificially Intelligent Statistician65 cited
  • 1994Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting47 cited
  • 2014The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products44 cited
  • 1991Feedback and the forecasting of exponential change33 cited
  • 1984Perception of changes in the cost of living26 cited
  • 1977Intuitive extrapolation of a growth function13 cited
  • 2007Going Critical: Perspective and Proportion in the Epistemology of Rob Kling1

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8 cited
  • 2017Individual preferences and the exponential growth bias7 cited
  • 1995Influence of age and gender on estimates of long-term financial growth functions7 cited
  • 2014Growth and Decline of Assets: On Biased Judgments of Asset Accumulation and Investment Decisions4 cited