Voting Fluidity and Oral Argument on the U.S. Supreme Court

Eve M. Ringsmuth · Amanda Clare Bryan · Timothy R. Johnson

31 citations0/0 files storedPolitical Research Quarterly

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Judicial and Constitutional Studies Legal processes and jurisprudence American Constitutional Law and Politics

Abstract

Although scholars have established that oral arguments play a role in Supreme Court decision making, a fundamental question remains: can oral arguments change justices’ votes? Using data on the positions taken by Justices Blackmun and Powell prior to oral arguments, the authors seek to answer this question while implicitly addressing another: how effectively can attorneys persuade the Court during arguments dominated by justices attempting to persuade each other? The authors find that in a significant minority of cases, justices are persuaded to switch their vote as a result of oral argument and that high-quality attorneys play a central role in that persuasion.

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References

1980Heuristic versus systematic information processing and the use of source versus message cues in persuasion.1986Communication and Persuasion 2015Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change 1954Communication and Persuasion: Psychological Studies of Opinion Change.1990Persuasion theory and research 2002The Supreme Court and the Attitudinal Model Revisited 2002Dynamic Ideal Point Estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the U.S. Supreme Court, 1953–1999 1993The Supreme Court and the Attitudinal Model

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2017Lawyer, Interrupted: Gender Bias in Oral Arguments at the US Supreme Court 2019Beyond Mere Presence: Gender Norms in Oral Arguments at the U.S. Supreme Court 2012Toward an Actor-Based Measure of Supreme Court Case Salience 2019Power Dynamics in Supreme Court Oral Arguments: The Relationship between Gender and Justice-to-Justice Interruptions 2018The Role of Gender Norms in Judicial Decision-Making at the U.S. Supreme Court: The Case of Male and Female Justices

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