Modeling Purchases as Repeated Events

Govert Ewout Bijwaard · Philip Hans Franses · Richard Paap

20 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Business and Economic Statistics

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Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing Probability and Statistical Research Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

We put forward a statistical model for interpurchase times that incorporates all current and past information available for all purchases as time runs along the calendar time scale. It delivers forecasts for the number of purchases in the next period, as well as for the timing of subsequent and consecutive purchases. Purchase occasions are viewed as a counting process that counts the recurrent purchases for each house-hold as they evolve over time. We illustrate our model for yogurt purchases and highlight its managerial implications.

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References

1979Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment 1993Analyzing Duration Times in Marketing: Evidence for the Effectiveness of Hazard Rate Models 1991Investigating Household Purchase Timing Decisions: A Conditional Hazard Function Approach 2000The Estimation of Pre- and Postpromotion Dips with Store-Level Scanner Data 1991Stochastic Models of Interpurchase Time with Time-Dependent Covariates 2003The Proportional Hazard Model for Purchase Timing 1998Inertia and Variety Seeking in a Model of Brand-Purchase Timing 1991Modeling Purchase-Timing and Brand-Switching Behavior Incorporating Explanatory Variables and Unobserved Heterogeneity

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2014Coordination and Dynamic Promotion Strategies in Crowdfunding with Network Externalities 2022Joint modeling of effects of customer tier program on customer purchase duration and purchase amount 2006Churn Prediction in the Mobile Telecommunications Industry

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