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Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting
16 references·16 citing·31 second hopsampled
Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting (2001)Calibration of Subjective Probability Jud…The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence (1992)The weighing of evidence and …Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Prospect theory: An analysis …Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (1986)Judgment in Managerial Decisi…Decision analysis and behavioral research (1986)Decision analysis and behavio…Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Judgment Under Uncertainty: H…Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1983)Judgement under Uncertainty: …Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: H…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect Theory: An Analysis …Decision making: A psychological analysis of conflict, choice, and commitment (1978)Decision making: A psychologi…Decision Making--A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment. (1978)Decision Making--A Psychologi…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Victims of Groupthink (1972)Victims of GroupthinkSubjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Subjective probability: A jud…Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior (1972)Conditional logit analysis of…Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. (1971)Reversals of preference betwe…The effect of calibration training on the calibration of intelligence analysts' judgments (2024)The effect of calibration tra…Effect of Calibration Training on the Calibration of Intelligence Analysts’ Judgments (2023)Effect of Calibration Trainin…Are experts overconfident?: An interdisciplinary review (2023)Are experts overconfident?: A…Turning the heat on financial decisions: Examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market (2021)Turning the heat on financial…Behavioural Analytics: Exploring judgments and choices in large data sets (2018)Behavioural Analytics: Explor…Approaches for credit scorecard calibration: An empirical analysis (2017)Approaches for credit scoreca…Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts (2015)Trusting Judgements: How to G…Searching for anchoring effects in a naturalistic environment: evidence from the Hong Kong horserace betting market (2013)Searching for anchoring effec…Are the unskilled doomed to remain unaware? (2012)Are the unskilled doomed to r…An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making (2011)An experimental study of the …Are the Unskilled Doomed to Remain Unaware? [The Extended Version] (2010)Are the Unskilled Doomed to R…To what extent do investors in a financial market anchor their judgments excessively? Evidence from the Hong Kong horserace betting market (2009)To what extent do investors i…Probability estimation in poker: A qualified success for unaided judgment (2009)Probability estimation in pok…Worse Than Chance? Performance and Confidence Among Professionals and Laypeople in the Stock Market (2004)Worse Than Chance? Performanc…New light on the longshot bias (2004)New light on the longshot biasMarket ecology and decision behaviour in state-contingent claims markets (2004)Market ecology and decision b…The theory of decision making. (1954)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method (2014)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning (1991)Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance (2007)Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Development of NASA-TLX (Task Load Index): Results of Empirical and Theoretical Research (1988)Epistemic Injustice (2007)Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy (1980)Macroeconomics and Reality (1980)Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2001)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)Ethical Decision Making by Individuals in Organizations: An Issue-Contingent Model (1991)Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making (1997)Social Identity Theory and the Organization (1989)The Transtheoretical Model of Health Behavior Change (1997)Risk as feelings. (2001)Those Who Understand: Knowledge Growth in Teaching (1986)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)The weirdest people in the world? (2010)Introduction: epistemic communities and international policy coordination (1992)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)The Influence of Culture, Community, and the Nested‐Self in the Stress Process: Advancing Conservation of Resources Theory (2001)
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References

  • 1979Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk48,459 cited
  • 1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk32,475 cited
  • 1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases28,742 cited
  • 1972Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior14,281 cited
  • 1984Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.5,656 cited
  • 1972Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness4,876 cited
  • 1978Decision making: A psychological analysis of conflict, choice, and commitment3,948 cited
  • 1983Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases3,812 cited
  • 1982Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases3,643 cited
  • 1986Decision analysis and behavioral research3,035 cited
  • 1972Victims of Groupthink2,379 cited
  • 1986Judgment in Managerial Decision Making2,254 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1992The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence1,842 cited
  • 1971Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions.1,571 cited
  • 1978Decision Making--A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment.

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1,432 cited

Cited by

  • 2004Worse Than Chance? Performance and Confidence Among Professionals and Laypeople in the Stock Market105 cited
  • 2015Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts103 cited
  • 2004New light on the longshot bias61 cited
  • 2012Are the unskilled doomed to remain unaware?54 cited
  • 2017Approaches for credit scorecard calibration: An empirical analysis47 cited
  • 2009To what extent do investors in a financial market anchor their judgments excessively? Evidence from the Hong Kong horserace betting market37 cited
  • 2011An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making35 cited
  • 2009Probability estimation in poker: A qualified success for unaided judgment18 cited
  • 2004Market ecology and decision behaviour in state-contingent claims markets17 cited
  • 2023Are experts overconfident?: An interdisciplinary review14 cited
  • 2018Behavioural Analytics: Exploring judgments and choices in large data sets7 cited
  • 2021Turning the heat on financial decisions: Examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market5 cited
  • 2024The effect of calibration training on the calibration of intelligence analysts' judgments4 cited
  • 2010Are the Unskilled Doomed to Remain Unaware? [The Extended Version]2 cited
  • 2013Searching for anchoring effects in a naturalistic environment: evidence from the Hong Kong horserace betting market1 cited
  • 2023Effect of Calibration Training on the Calibration of Intelligence Analysts’ Judgments1 cited