Prospect Theory in International Relations: The Iranian Hostage Rescue Mission

Abstract

This article uses prospect theory, a descriptive theory of decision-making under risk, to examine the failed rescue mission of the American hostages in Iran in April 1980. The argument is that President Carter was in a domain of losses both internationally and domestically at the time of the crisis. In this context, loss aversion predisposed him to take military risks to secure the release of the hostages that he would not ordinarily have been willing to pursue. This article also discusses the relationship between political and military risk in the options that were considered at the time.

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