Observing the "Spiral" in the Spiral of Silence

Abstract

Time is of the utmost importance when designing studies to test the spiral of silence theory. The theory posits that individuals who feel they are in the majority become more dominant and louder over time, while the minority camp becomes increasingly silent. However, few studies have tested the dynamic nature of the theory. Therefore, the aims of this article are to revisit the role of time in spiral of silence research and to demonstrate how dynamic processes can be modeled with three-wave panel data. Using survey data on the topic of unemployment, the relationship between change in the opinion climate and change in opinion expression is estimated with a latent growth model. Findings confirm the dynamic processes predicted by the theory.

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