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Sensitivity to Distance and Baseline Distributions in Forecast Evaluation
9 references·5 citing·41 second hop
Sensitivity to Distance and Baseline Distributions in Forecast Evaluation (2009)Sensitivity to Distance and Baseline Dist…Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2007)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules…Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities (1996)Scoring rules and the evaluat…Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules (1994)Evaluating Probabilities: Asy…A General Method for Comparing Probability Assessors (1989)A General Method for Comparin…Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions (1976)Scoring Rules for Continuous …Hedging and Skill Scores for Probability Forecasts (1973)Hedging and Skill Scores for …Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations (1971)Elicitation of Personal Proba…Assessment and evaluation of subjective probability distributions (1970)Assessment and evaluation of …MEASURES OF THE VALUE OF INFORMATION (1956)MEASURES OF THE VALUE OF INFO…Peering into a crystal ball: Forecasting behavior and industry foresight (2022)Peering into a crystal ball: …Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters (2020)Small steps to accuracy: Incr…An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules (2016)An Overview of Applications o…Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models (2012)Solving the Problem of Inadeq…Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities (2011)Tailored Scoring Rules for Pr…La prévision : ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives (1937)Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions (1975)Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules (2010)Forecast Verification (2011)Probabilistic Forecasting (2014)Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l'Ecole Americaine (1953)Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large (1964)Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large (1976)The Theory of Incentives: The Principal-Agent Model (2001)Measuring Expectations (2004)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness (2007)Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts (2011)Generación de series de tiempo financieras sintéticas para "data augmentation" usando redes neuronales generativas adversarias (GAN) (2021)Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. (1977)Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. (1994)Games with Incomplete Information Played by “Bayesian” Players, I–III: Part I. The Basic Model (2004)Combining Probability Forecasts (2010)Quantiles as optimal point forecasts (2010)A review of predictive uncertainty estimation with machine learning (2024)The Comparison and Evaluation of Forecasters (1983)Evaluating Quantile Assessments (2009)Forecast Verification (2019)A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods (2021)Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures (1991)Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons (1992)On determining probability forecasts from betting odds (2014)Dolores: a model that predicts football match outcomes from all over the world (2018)Learning to predict soccer results from relational data with gradient boosted trees (2018)A note on aggregating opinions (1978)Systematic Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects (1990)The concept of knowledge and how to measure it (2003)Eliciting properties of probability distributions (2008)Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging (2013)A discussion on: Of Quantiles and Expectiles: Consistent Scoring Functions, Choquet Representations, and Forecast Ranking, by W. Ehm, T. Gneiting, A. Jordan, and A. Krueger (2016)Fuzzy Statistics and Forecast Evaluation (1978)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2005)Forecasting turning points in tourism growth (2018)Proper Scores for Probability Forecasters (1971)Designing Markets for Prediction (2010)Efficient Market Making via Convex Optimization, and a Connection to Online Learning (2013)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 2007Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation5,771 cited
  • 1971Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations1,228 cited
  • 1976Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions950 cited
  • 1996Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities227 cited
  • 1956MEASURES OF THE VALUE OF INFORMATION198 cited
  • 1989A General Method for Comparing Probability Assessors181 cited
  • 1970Assessment and evaluation of subjective probability distributions109 cited
  • 1994Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules94 cited
  • 1973Hedging and Skill Scores for Probability Forecasts67 cited

Cited by

  • 2012Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models89 cited
  • 2016An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules47 cited
  • 2020Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters45 cited
  • 2022Peering into a crystal ball: Forecasting behavior and industry foresight43 cited
  • 2011Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities36 cited

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