Combining scenario planning and multi‐criteria decision analysis in practice

Abstract

Abstract The integrated use of scenario planning and multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in‐depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi‐attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi‐criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real‐world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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