Duration Models for Repeated Events

Abstract

An important feature of most political events is their repeatability: nearly all political events reoccur, and theories of learning, path dependence, and institutional change all suggest that later events will differ from earlier ones. Yet, most models for event history analysis fail to account for repeated events, a fact that can yield misleading results in practice. We present a class of duration models for analyzing repeated events, discuss their properties and implementation, and offer recommendations for their use by applied researchers. We illustrate these methods through an application to widely used data on international conflict.

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