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On The Calibration of Probability Judgments: Some Critical Comments and Alternative Perspectives
16 references·16 citing·36 second hopsampled
On The Calibration of Probability Judgments: Some Critical Comments and Alternative Perspectives (1997)On The Calibration of Probability Judgmen…Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination (1996)Overconfidence in Probability…On the reality of cognitive illusions. (1996)On the reality of cognitive i…Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off. (1995)Graininess of judgment under …The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items (1994)The Overconfidence Phenomenon…Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. (1994)Simultaneous over- and underc…The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence (1992)The weighing of evidence and …How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” (1991)How to Make Cognitive Illusio…Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues (1991)Calibration and probability j…Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information. (1988)Confidence, uncertainty, and …Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study (1987)Facing uncertainty in the gam…Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms. (1986)Measuring the vague meanings …Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…Features of similarity. (1977)Features of similarity.Book Reviews: Kerlinger, Fred N. Foundations of Behavioral Research. (2nd ed.) New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1973. 741 + xx pp. $13.95 (1974)Book Reviews: Kerlinger, Fred…A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score (1973)A New Vector Partition of the…Foundations of Behavioral Research (1967)Foundations of Behavioral Res…Are experts overconfident?: An interdisciplinary review (2023)Are experts overconfident?: A…Consumer knowledge discrimination (2015)Consumer knowledge discrimina…Confidence in Dyadic Decision Making: The Role of Individual Differences (2015)Confidence in Dyadic Decision…The Origin of Failure: A Multidisciplinary Appraisal of the Hubris Hypothesis and Proposed Research Agenda (2014)The Origin of Failure: A Mult…IMP: A decision aid for multiattribute evaluation using imprecise weight estimates (2014)IMP: A decision aid for multi…The Probability of Guilt in Criminal Cases: Are People Aware of Being ‘Beyond Reasonable Doubt’? (2013)The Probability of Guilt in C…Effects of immediacy of feedback on estimations and performance (2012)Effects of immediacy of feedb…Are the unskilled doomed to remain unaware? (2012)Are the unskilled doomed to r…Confidence and decision type under matched stimulus conditions: overconfidence in perceptual but not conceptual decisions (2008)Confidence and decision type …Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence (2007)Option fixation: A cognitive …Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years (2006)Judgmental forecasting: A rev…Worse Than Chance? Performance and Confidence Among Professionals and Laypeople in the Stock Market (2004)Worse Than Chance? Performanc…Stability and variability in the realism of confidence judgments over time, content domain, and gender (2003)Stability and variability in …Why isp = .90 better thanp = .70? Preference for definitive predictions by lay consumers of probability judgments (2001)Why isp = .90 better thanp = …Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting (2001)Calibration of Subjective Pro…The Calibration Issue: Theoretical Comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell (1996) (1998)The Calibration Issue: Theore…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1983)How we know--and sometimes misjudge--what others know: Imputing one's own knowledge to others. (1999)Self-Efficacy, Motivation Constructs, and Mathematics Performance of Entering Middle School Students (1999)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Family resemblances: Studies in the internal structure of categories (1975)Basic objects in natural categories (1976)In-group bias in the minimal intergroup situation: A cognitive-motivational analysis. (1979)Structure-mapping: A theoretical framework for analogy (1983)Dimensions of Consumer Expertise (1987)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)The impact of sleep deprivation on decision making: A review. (2000)Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. (2002)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)Measuring Expectations (2004)Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. (1977)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Strategic assets and organizational rent (1993)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)A Paradigm for Developing Better Measures of Marketing Constructs (1979)A 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (1996)The job demands-resources model of burnout. (2001)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Arbitrary metrics in psychology. (2006)Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. (2010)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism (1998)Teacher efficacy: capturing an elusive construct (2001)Developing and Validating Trust Measures for e-Commerce: An Integrative Typology (2002)
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References

  • 1977Features of similarity.7,474 cited
  • 1974Book Reviews: Kerlinger, Fred N. Foundations of Behavioral Research. (2nd ed.) New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1973. 741 + xx pp. $13.957,359 cited
  • 1967Foundations of Behavioral Research2,969 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1992The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence1,842 cited
  • 1996On the reality of cognitive illusions.1,466 cited
  • 1991How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”1,160 cited
  • 1973A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score1,120 cited
  • 1994Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.644 cited
  • 1991Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues550 cited
  • 1986Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms.538 cited
  • 1994The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items323 cited
  • 1995Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off.311 cited
  • 1987Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study302 cited
  • 1996Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

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297 cited
  • 1988Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information.279 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2006Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years535 cited
    • 2014The Origin of Failure: A Multidisciplinary Appraisal of the Hubris Hypothesis and Proposed Research Agenda183 cited
    • 2003Stability and variability in the realism of confidence judgments over time, content domain, and gender126 cited
    • 2004Worse Than Chance? Performance and Confidence Among Professionals and Laypeople in the Stock Market105 cited
    • 2001Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting61 cited
    • 2012Are the unskilled doomed to remain unaware?54 cited
    • 1998The Calibration Issue: Theoretical Comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell (1996)50 cited
    • 2001Why isp = .90 better thanp = .70? Preference for definitive predictions by lay consumers of probability judgments43 cited
    • 2007Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence38 cited
    • 2015Confidence in Dyadic Decision Making: The Role of Individual Differences25 cited
    • 2008Confidence and decision type under matched stimulus conditions: overconfidence in perceptual but not conceptual decisions24 cited
    • 2014IMP: A decision aid for multiattribute evaluation using imprecise weight estimates24 cited
    • 2015Consumer knowledge discrimination22 cited
    • 2012Effects of immediacy of feedback on estimations and performance19 cited
    • 2013The Probability of Guilt in Criminal Cases: Are People Aware of Being ‘Beyond Reasonable Doubt’?19 cited
    • 2023Are experts overconfident?: An interdisciplinary review14 cited