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Implications of the research on expert overconfidence and dependence
16 references·3 citing·39 second hop
Implications of the research on expert overconfidence and dependence (2004)Implications of the research on expert ov…Challenge problems: uncertainty in system response given uncertain parameters (2004)Challenge problems: uncertain…Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask (1999)Overconfidence: It Depends on…Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis (1999)Combining Probability Distrib…The psychology of judgment and decision making (1994)The psychology of judgment an…Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. (1994)Simultaneous over- and underc…On the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (1993)On the Psychology of Judgment…Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science (1992)Experts in uncertainty: opini…Decision analysis and behavioral research (1986)Decision analysis and behavio…Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography (1986)Combining Probability Distrib…Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: H…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…A progress report on the training of probability assessors (1982)A progress report on the trai…Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? (1977)Do those who know more also k…The Delphi method: Techniques and applications (1976)The Delphi method: Techniques…the delphi method: techniques and applications (1975)the delphi method: techniques…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Quantile Judgments of Lognormal Losses: An Experimental Investigation (2021)Quantile Judgments of Lognorm…Cognitive Biases (2018)Cognitive BiasesProbability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hierarchical modeling of sparse expert beliefs (2014)Probability aggregation in ti…The theory of decision making. (1954)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method (2014)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Knowledge and Cognition (1975)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Party Policy in Modern Democracies (2006)Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty. (1969)Agreeing to Disagree (1976)Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. (1994)Trust Management for the Semantic Web (2003)Probabilistic Forecasting (2014)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)Ethical Decision Making by Individuals in Organizations: An Issue-Contingent Model (1991)Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making (1997)The emerging conceptualization of groups as information processors. (1997)System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (2002)The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (2004)Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems (2003)The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning (2005)Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (2006)The Delphi technique: a critique (1987)Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences (2005)Delphi Technique in Health Sciences: A Map (2020)The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications (2004)Identification and Assessment of Intercultural Competence as a Student Outcome of Internationalization (2006)Defining consensus: A systematic review recommends methodologic criteria for reporting of Delphi studies (2014)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1975the delphi method: techniques and applications5,224 cited
  • 1982Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases3,643 cited
  • 1986Decision analysis and behavioral research3,035 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1976The Delphi method: Techniques and applications1,347 cited
  • 1994The psychology of judgment and decision making1,253 cited
  • 1992Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science1,129 cited
  • 1977Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?1,081 cited
  • 1986Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography1,007 cited
  • 1982A progress report on the training of probability assessors859 cited
  • 1999Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis824 cited
  • 1993On the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making795 cited
  • 1999Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask786 cited
  • 1994Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.644 cited

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2004
Challenge problems: uncertainty in system response given uncertain parameters
570 cited

Cited by

  • 2014Probability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hierarchical modeling of sparse expert beliefs30 cited
  • 2021Quantile Judgments of Lognormal Losses: An Experimental Investigation0 cited
  • 2018Cognitive Biases0 cited