Beyond three score years and ten: prospects for longevity in Australia

Heather Booth · Leonie Tickle

19 citations0/0 files storedANU Open Research (Australian National University)

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Global Health Care Issues demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

Most estimates and projections of life expectancy are based on period measures. This paper presents forecasts of cohort life expectancy for older generations derived using the Lee-Carter method of forecasting mortality. These cohort measures point to more years of life expectancy than the commonly cited current period measures. The new forecasts also indicate a more rapid increase in future life expectancy than official projections assume. Policy-makers and those planning retirement should take into account that Australians are likely to live longer than currently envisaged Copyright. Monash University and the author/s

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References

2002Broken Limits to Life Expectancy 2000Demography of longevity: past, present, and future trends 2003The future aged: new projections of Australia. ‘s elderly population

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2011Demographic change and the needs-based planning of government services: projecting small area populations using spatial microsimulation 2014The Longevity Prospects of Australian Seniors: An Evaluation of Forecast Method and Outcome 2017On the importance of being uncertain: forecasting population futures for Australia 2010Cohort Working Life Tables for Older Canadians 2021Mortality forecasting using factor models: Time-varying or time-invariant factor loadings?

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