Articlegreen2003

The future aged: new projections of Australia. ‘s elderly population

43 citations0/0 files storedAustralian Journal on Ageing

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Aging, Health, and Disability demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

Objectives: To use new methodology to forecast mortality for use in projections of the elderly population of Australia and to compare them with official projections. Method: The Lee‐Carter method is applied to data for Australian females and males for 1968–2000 to forecast mortality to 2031. These forecasts are used with standard population projection methods to produce projections of the elderly population. Results: By 2027, forecast life expectancy is 88.1 and 82.9 years for females and males, compared with official projections of 85.4 and 81.4 years. Over the period to 2031, the populations aged 65+ and 85+ are forecast to increase by factors of 2.3 and 3.4 respectively. Compared with official projectrons, the forecast elderly population is substantially larger and has higher old‐age dependency ratios, higher proportions aged 85+ and lower sex ratios. Conclusion: Official projections underestimate the size of the future elderly population especially the female and ola'est‐old populations.

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References

1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 2002Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes 2000A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries 2001Evaluating the Performance of the Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality 2002Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline 2000Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population 1994A Relational Model of Mortality at Older Ages in Low Mortality Countries 1992Australias population trends and prospects 1991.

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