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Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice
16 references·10 citing·41 second hop
Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice (2006)Prediction Markets in Theory and PracticeInterpreting the predictions of prediction markets (2006)Interpreting the predictions …Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities (2006)Interpreting Prediction Marke…Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market (2006)Information aggregation and m…Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election (2005)Are policy platforms capitali…Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? (2004)Prediction Markets: Does Mone…Prediction Markets (2004)Prediction MarketsHistorical Presidential Betting Markets (2004)Historical Presidential Betti…Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems (2003)Prediction Markets as Decisio…Combinatorial Information Market Design (2003)Combinatorial Information Mar…Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem (2002)Information Aggregation Mecha…6. Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey (1995)6. Experimental Asset Markets…Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading (1985)Continuous Auctions and Insid…Information, trade and common knowledge (1982)Information, trade and common…Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models (1982)Efficiency of Experimental Se…ON THE EFFICIENCY OF COMPETITIVE STOCK MARKETS WHERE TRADES HAVE DIVERSE INFORMATION (1976)ON THE EFFICIENCY OF COMPETIT…Information and Competitive Price Systems (1976)Information and Competitive P…Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions (2024)Associative memory, beliefs a…Point forecasting and forecast evaluation with generalized Huber loss (2022)Point forecasting and forecas…Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X (2015)Corporate Prediction Markets:…Web vs. Mobile (2014)Web vs. MobileThe impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter? (2014)The impact of political major…Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting (2013)Prediction Markets for Econom…Markets vs. polls as election predictors: An historical assessment (2012)Markets vs. polls as election…Early Warning Signals for War in the News (2012)Early Warning Signals for War…Prediction markets for foresight (2009)Prediction markets for foresi…Computational Aspects of Prediction Markets (2007)Computational Aspects of Pred…Agreeing to Disagree (1976)The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity (1978)Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders (1985)Herd Behavior and Investment (1988)Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets (1990)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations Under Asymmetric Information (1981)Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications (2005)The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab (2010)The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism (1970)Bargains and Ripoffs: A Model of Monopolistically Competitive Price Dispersion (1977)On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations (1982)The Consequences of the Dependence of Quality on Price (1987)The Use of Knowledge in Society (1996)Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets (1991)Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market (1992)Making the Difference: Applying a Logic of Diversity (2007)LOGARITHMIC MARKETS CORING RULES FOR MODULAR COMBINATORIAL INFORMATION AGGREGATION (2012)Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations (1971)A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design (2009)Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? (2013)Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls (2016)Orange Juice and Weather (1984)Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets (1988)Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices (1996)Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters (2008)Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task (2010)Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors (1977)PREDICTION MARKETS: AN EXTENDED LITERATURE REVIEW (2012)Implied Binomial Trees (1994)The Limits of Arbitrage (1995)Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets (2007)The Power of Stars: Do Star Actors Drive the Success of Movies? (2007)The Promise of Prediction Markets (2008)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects (2002)Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets (1990)Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short‐Term Speculation (1992)The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (2004)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1985Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading9,626 cited
  • 1982Information, trade and common knowledge1,738 cited
  • 1976ON THE EFFICIENCY OF COMPETITIVE STOCK MARKETS WHERE TRADES HAVE DIVERSE INFORMATION1,438 cited
  • 1976Information and Competitive Price Systems921 cited
  • 2004Prediction Markets886 cited
  • 1982Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models565 cited
  • 2003Combinatorial Information Market Design479 cited
  • 2006Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets329 cited
  • 2004Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?294 cited
  • 2002Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem291 cited
  • 19956. Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey248 cited
  • 2005Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election231 cited
  • 2004Historical Presidential Betting Markets228 cited
  • 2003Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems212 cited
  • 2006Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities202 cited

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2006
Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market
186 cited

Cited by

  • 2012Early Warning Signals for War in the News129 cited
  • 2015Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X123 cited
  • 2007Computational Aspects of Prediction Markets69 cited
  • 2012Markets vs. polls as election predictors: An historical assessment58 cited
  • 2014The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?55 cited
  • 2013Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting55 cited
  • 2024Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions52 cited
  • 2009Prediction markets for foresight40 cited
  • 2022Point forecasting and forecast evaluation with generalized Huber loss35 cited
  • 2014Web vs. Mobile0 cited