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Exploring the Overestimation of Conjunctive Probabilities
16 references·9 citing·45 second hop
Exploring the Overestimation of Conjunctive Probabilities (2013)Exploring the Overestimation of Conjuncti…On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: Probability versus inductive confirmation. (2012)On the determinants of the co…A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors. (2011)A quantum theoretical explana…The coexistence of overestimation and underweighting of rare events and the contingent recency effect (2009)The coexistence of overestima…Probability theory, not the very guide of life. (2009)Probability theory, not the v…Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment (2008)Extensional Versus Intuitive …Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2007)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules…The Emergence of Probability (2006)The Emergence of ProbabilityRepresentativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment (2002)Representativeness Revisited:…Human judgment and social policy: irreducible uncertainty, inevitable error, unavoidable injustice (1997)Human judgment and social pol…The Representativeness Heuristic and the Conjunction Fallacy Effect in Children's Decision Making. (1995)The Representativeness Heuris…Representativeness and conjoint probability. (1991)Representativeness and conjoi…Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Extensional versus intuitive …Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Extensional versus intuitive …THE EMERGENCE OF PROBABILITY: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (1976)THE EMERGENCE OF PROBABILITY:…An investigation of the relations among probability estimates (1976)An investigation of the relat…Man as an intuitive statistician. (1967)Man as an intuitive statistic…People make suboptimal decisions about existential risks (2025)People make suboptimal decisi…An overview of the quantum cognition research program (2025)An overview of the quantum co…Inquiry Under Bounds (2024)Inquiry Under BoundsBounded rationality (2024)Bounded rationalityThe similarity-updating model of probability judgment and belief revision. (2021)The similarity-updating model…Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds? Three Studies of How Bettors Interpret Betting Odds as Probabilistic Information (2015)Do Bettors Correctly Perceive…The role of ANS acuity and numeracy for the calibration and the coherence of subjective probability judgments (2014)The role of ANS acuity and nu…Is there something special with probabilities? – Insight vs. computational ability in multiple risk combination (2014)Is there something special wi…In search for a standard of rationality (2014)In search for a standard of r…Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence (2011)When Harry Fired Sally: The Double Standard in Punishing Misconduct (2017)A Manager and an AI Walk into a Bar: Does ChatGPT Make Biased Decisions Like We Do? (2025)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control (1999)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics (2003)Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making (2005)The theory of decision making. (1954)Applied Statistical Decision Theory (1962)Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. (1966)The processes of causal attribution. (1973)The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)Judged frequency of lethal events. (1978)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)A Quantum Probability Account of Order Effects in Inference (2011)A Quantum Question Order Model Supported by Empirical Tests of anA Prioriand Precise Prediction (2013)Quantum cognition: a new theoretical approach to psychology (2015)Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations (1971)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness (2007)Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts (2011)Generación de series de tiempo financieras sintéticas para "data augmentation" usando redes neuronales generativas adversarias (GAN) (2021)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review (2002)Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgment, and Social Cognition (2007)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)Informal Conceptions of Probability (1989)From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology. (1991)Heuristics and biases as measures of critical thinking: Associations with cognitive ability and thinking dispositions. (2008)Myths of Nature: Culture and the Social Construction of Risk (1992)Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems (2003)What to do next? The case for non‐predictive strategy (2006)Toward a histology of social behavior: Judgmental accuracy from thin slices of the behavioral stream (2000)Psychological testing and psychological assessment: A review of evidence and issues. (2001)Reconciling the supply of scientific information with user demands: an analysis of the problem and review of the literature (2006)Numeric, Verbal, and Visual Formats of Conveying Health Risks: Suggested Best Practices and Future Recommendations (2007)The ethics of algorithms: Mapping the debate (2016)
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References

  • 2007Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation5,771 cited
  • 1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.3,990 cited
  • 2002Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment3,474 cited
  • 2006The Emergence of Probability1,028 cited
  • 1967Man as an intuitive statistician.966 cited
  • 1997Human judgment and social policy: irreducible uncertainty, inevitable error, unavoidable injustice719 cited
  • 2011A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors.410 cited
  • 2008Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment375 cited
  • 1976THE EMERGENCE OF PROBABILITY: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference366 cited
  • 1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.361 cited
  • 2012On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: Probability versus inductive confirmation.144 cited
  • 1995The Representativeness Heuristic and the Conjunction Fallacy Effect in Children's Decision Making.130 cited
  • 1976An investigation of the relations among probability estimates117 cited
  • 2009Probability theory, not the very guide of life.102 cited

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  • 1991Representativeness and conjoint probability.95 cited
  • 2009The coexistence of overestimation and underweighting of rare events and the contingent recency effect85 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2024Inquiry Under Bounds31 cited
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    • 2025An overview of the quantum cognition research program16 cited
    • 2021The similarity-updating model of probability judgment and belief revision.9 cited
    • 2014In search for a standard of rationality8 cited
    • 2014Is there something special with probabilities? – Insight vs. computational ability in multiple risk combination7 cited
    • 2015Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds? Three Studies of How Bettors Interpret Betting Odds as Probabilistic Information2 cited
    • 2024Bounded rationality1 cited
    • 2025People make suboptimal decisions about existential risks1 cited