An Experiment in Probability Estimation

Paul E. Green · Michael H. Halbert · Patrick J. Robinson

39 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Marketing Research

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Probability and Statistical Research Economic and Environmental Valuation

Abstract

While the activity of marketing research can be fruitfully viewed within a statistical decision theoretic model, relatively little is known concerning the descriptive aspects of how people—managers or consumers—revise probabilities in the light of new information. This paper reports the results of a behavioral study in probability revision, and the implications of these findings for the operational use of decision theoretic concepts in prescriptive and descriptive choice-making models.

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1948An Experimental Study of the Auction-Value of an Uncertain Outcome 1966Human Judgments and Optimality

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1968Choice Criteria, Decision Behavior, and Personality 2022Over- and Underreaction to Information 1972Measurement of Consumers' Prior Brand Information 1968Failure of predictions from subjectively expected utility theory in a Bayesian decision task 1970Entscheidungsprozesse unter Verwendung des Theorems von Bayes 2020Expectation Formation Under Uninformative Signals 2018Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases 2020Can Agents Add and Subtract When Forming Beliefs?

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