Reliable transportation network design considering uncertain demand variability

Abstract

Travel demand is indeed stochastic with day-to-day travel demand variability, because of the underlying characteristic of variability of travel activities. The stochastic travel demand can be described by different probability distribution patterns and has to be considered in transport network design, as it affects travelers' routing choice behavior against stochastic travel time and eventually the traffic flow pattern on the network. However, on the other hand, because of the inaccurate or inconsistent travel demand estimation procedures, the prediction of the travel demand distribution pattern and parameters is susceptible to a certain level of uncertainty. Therefore, both the travel demand day-to-day variability and the uncertainty in terms of estimating travel demand distribution pattern and parameters have to be incorporated in the transportation network design. This study develops an approach to model network design problem with uncertain demand variability. Specifically, it is assumed that the total travel demand comprises two parts, commuters and infrequent travelers, and only the demand of infrequent travelers is stochastic. Then, the travel time reliability is introduced to depict the path choice behavior. A finite-scenario two-stage stochastic programming approach is applied to model the network design problem with uncertain demand variability. Numerical studies are performed to illustrate the model validity and efficiency of solution algorithm.

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