INTRODUCTION: OVERCOMING OVERCONFIDENCE AND OTHER PROCESSES IN SHALLOW THINKING

Abstract

A possibly surprising observation is that most executives do not acquire formal training in meta-thinking, that is, thinking about thinking and deciding including training in effective prescriptive tools to increase effective thinking and deciding. Two reasons may be responsible for this lack of training. First, the overconfidence bias is widespread – most executives tend to rely too often on their unconsciously driven automatic thoughts (see Bargh, Gollwitzer, Lee-Chai, Barndollar & Troetschel, 2001; Wegner, 2002). The tendency is natural to assume that our intuitive beliefs are accurate and that relying on external heuristics (i.e. written checklists, explicit protocols) are unnecessary. Even when presented with hard evidence that formal external searches of relevant information sources and the use of explicit decision rules result in more accurate decisions than intuitive judgment alone, the executive’s first response often includes disbelief and resentment – resentment in the implicit loss of her/his authority to evaluate and decide.

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