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This paper provides evidence of the longer-term effects of the Oportunidades conditional cash transfer program on male-to-female spousal violence. We use data from two nationally- representative surveys that include detailed information on the prevalence of spousal abuse and threats of violence against women. Constructing comparable groups of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households within each village to minimize potential selection biases, we find that, in contrast to the short-run estimates, physical and emotional abuse rates do not vary significantly among existing beneficiary and non-beneficiary couples. We examine possible mechanisms for the discrepancy in the short and long-term impacts of the program; most importantly, the role that marital selection may play in explaining these differential effects.
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