Estimating dynamic origin–destination demand: A hybrid framework using license plate recognition data

Baichuan Mo · Ruimin Li · Jingchen Dai

54 citations0/0 files storedComputer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Traffic control and management Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques

Abstract

This article proposes a hybrid framework for estimating dynamic origin–destination (OD) demand that fully exploits the information available in license plate recognition (LPR) data. A Bayesian path reconstruction model is initially developed to replenish the lost information resulting from the recognition error and insufficient coverage rate of the LPR system. The link flows, initial OD demand, left-turning flows, and partial path flows are derived based on the reconstructed data. Subsequently, with the information derived, a two-step ordinary least squares (OLS) OD estimation model is formulated, which incorporates the output from the Bayesian model and coestimates the OD demand and assignment matrix. The proposed framework is qualitatively validated using the real-world LPR data collected from Langfang City, Hebei Province, China, and is quantitatively validated using the synthesized simulation data for the simplified road network of Langfang. The results show that the proposed model can estimate OD demand distribution with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of about 30%. We also tested the model with different LPR coverage rates, with results showing that an LPR coverage rate of over 50% is required to obtain reasonable results.

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References

1971A probabilistic multipath traffic assignment model which obviates path enumeration 1993Dynamic Estimators of Origin-Destination Matrices Using Traffic Counts 2007Trip matrix and path flow reconstruction and estimation based on plate scanning and link observations 2006Dynamic Origin–Destination Demand Estimation Using Automatic Vehicle Identification Data 2006Robust Transportation Network Design Under Demand Uncertainty 1991An analysis of the reliability of an origin-destination trip matrix estimated from traffic counts 1987Recursive estimation of origin-destination matrices from input/output counts 2004An Efficient Algorithm for Real-Time Estimation and Prediction of Dynamic OD Tables

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