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Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences
16 references·1 citing·50 second hop
Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences (2021)Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contribu…Measurement Theory and Applications for the Social Sciences (2019)Measurement Theory and Applic…Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (2014)Psychological Strategies for …Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds (2014)Identifying Expertise to Extr…Item Response Theory (2013)Item Response TheoryA route to more tractable expert advice (2010)A route to more tractable exp…Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2007)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules…Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making (2005)Cognitive Reflection and Deci…The Raven's Progressive Matrices: Change and Stability over Culture and Time (2000)The Raven's Progressive Matri…Reasoning independently of prior belief and individual differences in actively open-minded thinking. (1997)Reasoning independently of pr…State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review (1983)State of the Art—Encoding Sub…The need for cognition. (1982)The need for cognition.Tests for comparing elements of a correlation matrix. (1980)Tests for comparing elements …The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. (1979)The robust beauty of improper…A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score (1973)A New Vector Partition of the…Statistical Theories of Mental Test Scores (1969)Statistical Theories of Menta…The axioms and principal results of classical test theory (1966)The axioms and principal resu…Hybrid forecasting of geopolitical events† (2023)Hybrid forecasting of geopoli…The achievement motive (1953)The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations. (1958)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)The role of transportation in the persuasiveness of public narratives. 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References

  • 1969Statistical Theories of Mental Test Scores8,023 cited
  • 2007Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation5,848 cited
  • 1982The need for cognition.5,357 cited
  • 2005Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making5,253 cited
  • 1980Tests for comparing elements of a correlation matrix.4,648 cited
  • 1979The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.1,969 cited
  • 2000The Raven's Progressive Matrices: Change and Stability over Culture and Time1,559 cited
  • 1973A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score1,120 cited
  • 2013Item Response Theory768 cited
  • 1997Reasoning independently of prior belief and individual differences in actively open-minded thinking.735 cited
  • 1966The axioms and principal results of classical test theory511 cited
  • 2019Measurement Theory and Applications for the Social Sciences394 cited
  • 2014Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds363 cited
  • 1983State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review350 cited
  • 2010A route to more tractable expert advice333 cited
  • 2014

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Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
310 cited

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  • 2023Hybrid forecasting of geopolitical events†25 cited