Overconfidence

Abstract

This article considers the phenomenon of overconfidence whereby an individual, group or organization believes that it has more knowledge or skill in a particular domain than it actually possesses. It outlines the three distinct forms of confidence that have been identified in the literature: misestimation, misplacement and misprecision. It goes on to discuss various ways in which organizations can adapt their judgement processes to reduce the incidence of overconfidence, highlighting some real-world case studies. It ends with some observations and suggestions for future research in this complex area.

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