CHAPTER 7 Dutch Book Arguments

Abstract

Abstract Dutch Book arguments purport to show that rationality requires certain constraints on an agent's subjective probabilities, on pain of the agent being susceptible to sure losses in corresponding bets. This survey offers critical assessments of several kinds of Dutch Book arguments. The chapter begins with the classic argument for obedience to the probability calculus, emphasizing both its literal interpretation in terms of monetary losses at the hands of a cunning bettor, and the interpretation that this merely dramatizes a deeper underlying defect, an inconsistency in the agent's credences. The chapter then discusses “diachronic” Dutch Book arguments that concern constraints on how agents should update their credences in the face of evidence. Finally, the chapter canvases some more “exotic” Dutch Book arguments and some recent developments.

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