Negative consequences of failing to communicate uncertainties during a pandemic: an online randomised controlled trial on COVID-19 vaccines

Eleonore Batteux · Avri Bilovich · Samuel G. B. Johnson · David Tuckett

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Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy Risk Perception and Management Communication and COVID-19 Impact

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of the government communicating uncertainties relating to COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness on vaccination intention and trust after people are exposed to conflicting information. DESIGN: Experimental design where participants were randomly allocated to one of two groups. SETTING: Online. PARTICIPANTS: 328 adults from a UK research panel. INTERVENTION: Participants received either certain or uncertain communications from a government representative about COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, before receiving conflicting information about effectiveness. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Vaccination intention and trust in government. RESULTS: 0.34, 95% CI (0.12 to 0.56), p=0.002) after receiving conflicting information. CONCLUSIONS: Communicating with certainty about COVID-19 vaccines reduces vaccination intention and trust if conflicting information arises, whereas communicating uncertainties can protect people from the negative impact of exposure to conflicting information. There are likely to be other factors affecting vaccine intentions, which we do not account for in this study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Open Science Framework: https://osf.io/c73px/.

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References

2020A global survey of potential acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine 2020Attitudes towards vaccines and intention to vaccinate against COVID-19: Implications for public health communications 2019Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science 2017Understanding the Dimensions of Anti-Vaccination Attitudes: the Vaccination Attitudes Examination (VAX) Scale 1995Presenting Uncertainty in Health Risk Assessment: Initial Studies of Its Effects on Risk Perception and Trust 2020The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers 2020A review of the effects of uncertainty in public science communication 2020Five rules for evidence communication

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2023A systematic review of communication interventions for countering vaccine misinformation 2024Categorising interventions to enhance vaccine uptake or reduce vaccine hesitancy in the United Kingdom: A systematic review and meta-analysis 2023The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust 2021Measuring Sentence-Level and Aspect-Level (Un)certainty in Science Communications

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