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People prefer to predict middle, most likely quantitative outcomes (not extreme ones), but they still over-estimate their likelihood
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(1998)The alternative-outcomes effe…Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities (1997)Patterns of Preference for Nu…The Logic of Markedness (1996)The Logic of MarkednessProcessing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence (1995)Processing Linguistic Probabi…Preferences and reasons for communicating probabilistic information in verbal or numerical terms (1993)Preferences and reasons for c…How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions (1982)How probable is probable? A n…Recertification: Will We Retreat? (1980)Recertification: Will We Retr…Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? 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References

  • 2001When children are more logical than adults: experimental investigations of scalar implicature900 cited
  • 1982How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions527 cited
  • 2003Terrorism and Probability Neglect374 cited
  • 1993Preferences and reasons for communicating probabilistic information in verbal or numerical terms291 cited
  • 2007A New Look at the Semantics and Pragmatics of Numerically Quantified Noun Phrases271 cited
  • 1995Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence203 cited
  • 2006The influence of conservatism and secrecy on the interpretation of verbal probability expressions in the Anglo and Latin cultural areas191 cited
  • 1980Recertification: Will We Retreat?183 cited
  • 2003The semantics and acquisition of number words: integrating linguistic and developmental perspectives173 cited
  • 1996The Logic of Markedness171 cited
  • 2013Do framing effects reveal irrational choice?112 cited
  • 1997Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities109 cited
  • 2002The role of translations of verbal into numerical probability expressions in risk management: a meta-analysis106 cited
  • 1998The alternative-outcomes effect.99 cited

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2008
Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior
93 cited
  • 2013Improbable outcomes: Infrequent or extraordinary?73 cited
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