Heterogeneous Impact of Fintech on the Profitability of Commercial Banks: Competition and Spillover Effects

Abstract

Using annual panel data of 46 listed commercial banks in China from 2012 to 2021 and constructing a two-way fixed-effects model, this study empirically analyzes the competition and technology spillover effects of fintech on the profitability of commercial banks. The results show that (1) in the early stages of fintech development, the competition effect is larger than the technology spillover effect; thus, it is negatively correlated with commercial banks’ profitability. However, with the spread of innovative fintech, the technology spillover effects and commercial bank profitability will gradually improve. (2) The influence of fintech on the profitability of commercial banks differs. Compared to large commercial banks, fintech has more significant negative effects on small- and medium-sized commercial banks in the short run. However, the role of fintech for such banks will also grow in the future. The results of this study provide practical guidance for how commercial banks can respond to the fintech wave. To realize sustainable development of the banking industry, commercial banks should change their business philosophy and revenue model, vigorously improve their fintech innovation capability, differentiate their choice of fintech development routes, develop personalized customization with a focus on users, and ultimately realize digital transformation and upgrading.

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