Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of Coale's model nuptiality schedule from survey data

Abstract

Data from the Colombian National Fertility Survey of 1976 are used to illustrate a method for fitting Coales model nuptiality schedule to data collected in the World Fertility Survey. The method of maximum likelihood is used for the fitting. Such a procedure can produce the following interesting information: 1) the model can smooth the data gathered by a survey or assess the quality of such data; 2) the model permits the description of the nuptiality process according to the parameters of the proportion of women within a cohort who will eventually marry the mean age at marriage and the standard deviation from such a mean; and 3) the model describes the complex process of nuptiality. All collected data is tabulated and/or graphed as it is fitted to the Coale model. Coale based his model on empirical evidence that the distribution of age at 1st marriage in a female cohort follows the same basic pattern in many different populations. Differences among populations occur in the location and scale of age at marriage and the proportion of the cohort which eventually marries.

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