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The Effect of Base Rate on Calibration of Subjective Probability for True-False Questions: Model and Experiment
6 references·16 citing·42 second hop
The Effect of Base Rate on Calibration of Subjective Probability for True-False Questions: Model and Experiment (1983)The Effect of Base Rate on Calibration of…Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: H…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…A model of calibration for subjective probabilities (1980)A model of calibration for su…Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? (1977)Do those who know more also k…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions (1975)Cognitive Processes and the A…The bounded rationality of probability distortion (2020)The bounded rationality of pr…Reliability and Validity in Expert Judgment (2007)Reliability and Validity in E…A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities (2003)A random support model of the…Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives (2002)Understanding Misunderstandin…Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics” (2002)Sympathetic Magical Thinking:…Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should” (2002)Self-Anchoring in Conversatio…Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic (2002)Putting Adjustment Back in th…Probability Judgment across Cultures (2002)Probability Judgment across C…Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Norm Theory: Comparing Realit…Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem (2002)Mental Contamination and the …Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs (2002)Like Goes with Like: The Role…Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery (2002)Imagining Can Heighten or Low…Heuristics and Biases in Application (2002)Heuristics and Biases in Appl…Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting (2002)Durability Bias in Affective …Do Analysts Overreact? (2002)Do Analysts Overreact?Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions. (1995)Resistance of personal risk p…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. 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(1989)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years (2006)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Knowledge and Cognition (1975)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Party Policy in Modern Democracies (2006)A power primer. (1992)(The Lack of) Optimistic Biases in Response to the 1994 Northridge Earthquake: The Role of Personal Experience (1999)Behavioral Law and Economics (2007)Risk perception and optimism during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic (2021)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)The origin of predictable behavior (1983)Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography (1986)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)Measuring System Usage: Implications for IS Theory Testing (1995)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)Ethical Decision Making by Individuals in Organizations: An Issue-Contingent Model (1991)Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making (1997)The Two Forms of Belief in a Just World (1998)Revisiting positionality and the thesis of situated knowledge (2019)The Oxford Handbook of Experimental Semantics and Pragmatics (2019)Everyday magical powers: The role of apparent mental causation in the overestimation of personal influence. (2006)Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions (2009)What's in a Term? 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this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1982Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases3,643 cited
  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 1977Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?1,081 cited
  • 1975Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions479 cited
  • 1980A model of calibration for subjective probabilities192 cited

Cited by

  • 2002Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives289 cited
  • 2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”191 cited
  • 1995Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions.166 cited
  • 2002Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem160 cited
  • 2002Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives119 cited
  • 2002Do Analysts Overreact?82 cited
  • 2002Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should”67 cited
  • 2002Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting66 cited
  • 2003A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities57 cited

Only edges whose both ends are imported exist here. Widen the year window, or show the whole map. Back to the work

  • 2002Probability Judgment across Cultures54 cited
  • 2002Heuristics and Biases in Application51 cited
  • 2002Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic50 cited
  • 2020The bounded rationality of probability distortion48 cited
  • 2007Reliability and Validity in Expert Judgment47 cited
  • 2002Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs46 cited
  • 2002Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery45 cited