Downward Spirals, Boiled Frogs, and Catastrophes: Examining the Rate of School Decline

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the validity of common assumptions about the rate at which school decline manifests. From a population of 981 elementary schools in the state of Virginia, the author uses three operational definitions of school decline to identify samples of declining schools: Absolute (n = 217), Relational (n = 510), and Crossing the Line (n = 165). Descriptive data and latent growth model results indicated that catastrophic declines and downward spirals rarely exist. Instead, analyses suggested temporal improvements possibly mask the longitudinal negative trend of declining school performance.

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