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Subjective recalibration of advisors' probability estimates

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References

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2003Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: evidence for a confidence heuristic272 cited
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1997Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates145 cited
1996Good probabilistic forecasters: The ‘consumer's’ perspective135 cited
2006Aggregation of opinions based on correlated cues and advisors86 cited
2005Interpersonal comparison of subjective probabilities: Toward translating linguistic probabilities75 cited
1986Calibration and the Expert Problem48 cited
2001Why isp = .90 better thanp = .70? Preference for definitive predictions by lay consumers of probability judgments43 cited

Cited by

2014Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme130 cited

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2014Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence101 cited

2013Forecast aggregation via recalibration73 cited

2015Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity60 cited

2013A cautionary note on global recalibration11 cited