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The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting
16 references·16 citing·41 second hopsampled
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting (1980)The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Expe…Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer (1979)Long-Range Forecasting: From …A note on aggregating opinions (1978)A note on aggregating opinionsTelling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)Telling more than we can know…Publication prejudices: An experimental study of confirmatory bias in the peer review system (1977)Publication prejudices: An ex…Psychology of the scientist: An analysis of problem-solving bias (1977)Psychology of the scientist: …Heads I win, tails it's chance: The illusion of control as a function of the sequence of outcomes in a purely chance task. (1975)Heads I win, tails it's chanc…On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the psychology of predicti…Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs. (1969)Illusory correlation as an ob…The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses (1965)The Method of Multiple Workin…Decision making in the employment interview (1964)Decision making in the employ…On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task (1960)On the Failure to Eliminate H…Surveillance and trust1 (1958)Surveillance and trust1The ability to judge people. (1955)The ability to judge people.'Superstition' in the pigeon. (1948)'Superstition' in the pigeon.Stock Market Forecasting (1944)Stock Market ForecastingCan Stock Market Forecasters Forecast? (1933)Can Stock Market Forecasters …Do We Use Relatively Bad (Algorithmic) Advice? The Effects of Performance Feedback and Advice Representation on Advice Usage (2024)Do We Use Relatively Bad (Alg…A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods (2021)A survey of human judgement a…Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists (2018)Forecasting methods and princ…Numeric Data Frames and Probabilistic Judgments in Complex Real-World Environments (2017)Numeric Data Frames and Proba…Predictive validity of evidence-based persuasion principles (2016)Predictive validity of eviden…Marketers' Intuitions about the Sales Effectiveness of Advertisements (2016)Marketers' Intuitions about t…Seeking Consensus in the Social Sciences (2014)Seeking Consensus in the Soci…Getting the best out of experts: a review (2014)Getting the best out of exper…Are crowds on the internet wiser than experts? The case of a stock prediction community (2014)Are crowds on the internet wi…Utilization of Advice from Face-to-Face and Internet-Mediated Advisors (2013)Utilization of Advice from Fa…Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research (2012)Evaluating the accuracy and c…Evidence-based advertising (2011)Evidence-based advertisingPrediction markets for foresight (2009)Prediction markets for foresi…The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2007)The Ombudsman: Value of Exper…Combining Individual Judgments (1985)Combining Individual JudgmentsStrategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals (1983)Strategic Planning And Foreca…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)An Experimental Study of Apparent Behavior (1944)Social perception and phenomenal causality. (1944)The Role and the Person (1978)Trust development, the GRIT proposal, and the effects of conciliatory acts on conflict and cooperation. (1978)The Bases of Power: Origins and Recent Developments (1993)Rank Correlation Methods. (1949)Rank Correlation Methods. (1957)The Logic of Scientific Discovery. (1959)Positive-Negative Asymmetry in Evaluations: The Distinction Between Affective and Informational Negativity Effects (1990)Initial Trust Formation in New Organizational Relationships (1998)Scientific Discovery Learning with Computer Simulations of Conceptual Domains (1998)Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. (1967)The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process (1977)Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. (1979)The illusion of control. (1975)Unrealistic optimism about future life events. (1980)Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health. (1988)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)The American Psychological Association (1919)Effects of externally mediated rewards on intrinsic motivation. 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References

  • 1977Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes.11,315 cited
  • 1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
  • 1960On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task2,104 cited
  • 1948'Superstition' in the pigeon.1,453 cited
  • 1965The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses1,071 cited
  • 1977Publication prejudices: An experimental study of confirmatory bias in the peer review system1,013 cited
  • 1969Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs.989 cited
  • 1975Heads I win, tails it's chance: The illusion of control as a function of the sequence of outcomes in a purely chance task.813 cited
  • 1933Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?727 cited
  • 1958Surveillance and trust1351 cited
  • 1955The ability to judge people.330 cited
  • 1978A note on aggregating opinions322 cited
  • 1964Decision making in the employment interview240 cited
  • 1979Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer226 cited
  • 1977Psychology of the scientist: An analysis of problem-solving bias113 cited
  • 1944Stock Market Forecasting

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109 cited

Cited by

  • 1985Combining Individual Judgments84 cited
  • 2021A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods78 cited
  • 2012Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research71 cited
  • 2014Are crowds on the internet wiser than experts? The case of a stock prediction community66 cited
  • 2007The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts62 cited
  • 1983Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals48 cited
  • 2018Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists43 cited
  • 2011Evidence-based advertising40 cited
  • 2009Prediction markets for foresight40 cited
  • 2016Predictive validity of evidence-based persuasion principles16 cited
  • 2016Marketers' Intuitions about the Sales Effectiveness of Advertisements13 cited
  • 2014Seeking Consensus in the Social Sciences2 cited
  • 2013Utilization of Advice from Face-to-Face and Internet-Mediated Advisors2 cited
  • 2024Do We Use Relatively Bad (Algorithmic) Advice? The Effects of Performance Feedback and Advice Representation on Advice Usage1 cited
  • 2014Getting the best out of experts: a review0 cited
  • 2017Numeric Data Frames and Probabilistic Judgments in Complex Real-World Environments0 cited