Notes—Discovering Personal Probabilities When Utility Functions are Unknown

Franklin Allen

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Multi-Criteria Decision Making Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Standard scoring rules require knowledge of the expert's utility function. This note shows how basic reference lottery tickets can be used to develop scoring rules which do not require this information.

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1971Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations 1976Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions 1967The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions 1970Assessment and evaluation of subjective probability distributions

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