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Notes—Discovering Personal Probabilities When Utility Functions are Unknown
4 references·16 citing·44 second hop
Notes—Discovering Personal Probabilities When Utility Functions are Unknown (1987)Notes—Discovering Personal Probabilities …Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions (1976)Scoring Rules for Continuous …Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations (1971)Elicitation of Personal Proba…Assessment and evaluation of subjective probability distributions (1970)Assessment and evaluation of …The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions (1967)The Quantification of Judgmen…Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution (2022)Motivated Beliefs and Anticip…Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs (2021)Experimental methods: Eliciti…Replication: Belief elicitation with quadratic and binarized scoring rules (2020)Replication: Belief elicitati…Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities, risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments (2020)Eliciting farmers’ subjective…Learning Together Slowly: Bayesian Learning about Political Facts (2017)Learning Together Slowly: Bay…An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules (2016)An Overview of Applications o…The Control Premium: A Preference for Payoff Autonomy (2014)The Control Premium: A Prefer…Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries (2014)Eliciting subjective probabil…Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums (2014)Belief Elicitation: A Horse R…Eliciting Probabilities, Means, Medians, Variances and Covariances without Assuming Risk Neutrality (2013)Eliciting Probabilities, Mean…Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging (2013)Eliciting beliefs: Proper sco…Belief Elicitation in the Lab (2013)Belief Elicitation in the LabBelief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study (2011)Belief elicitation in the pre…Preferences and Beliefs in a Sequential Social Dilemma: A Within-Subjects Analysis (2009)Preferences and Beliefs in a …Prospect-theory’s Diminishing Sensitivity Versus Economics’ Intrinsic Utility of Money: How the Introduction of the Euro can be Used to Disentangle the Two Empirically (2007)Prospect-theory’s Diminishing…Understanding variability in binary and continuous choice (1998)Understanding variability in …La prévision : ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives (1937)Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions (1975)Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules (2010)Forecast Verification (2011)Probabilistic Forecasting (2014)Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l'Ecole Americaine (1953)Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large (1964)Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large (1976)The Theory of Incentives: The Principal-Agent Model (2001)Measuring Expectations (2004)Measuring utility by a single-response sequential method (1964)Measuring Utility by a Single-Response Sequential Method (1964) (1974)Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects (2002)Looking at the bright side: The motivational value of confidence (2019)The illusion of control. (1975)CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment (2005)z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments (2007)Information Sharing, Advice Provision, or Delegation: What Leads to Higher Trust and Trustworthiness? (2017)We should totally open a restaurant: How optimism and overconfidence affect beliefs (2018)Rise of the machines: Delegating decisions to autonomous AI (2022)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2007)SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES IN GAMES: AN APPLICATION TO THE OVERBIDDING PUZZLE* (2009)Financial literacy and entrepreneurial risk aversion (2020)Rational Decisions (1952)Elementary Decision Theory. (1959)Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. (1966)The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions (1968)Feature Article—Decision Analysis: An Overview (1982)Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests (2007)An Economic Theory of Democracy. (1958)The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (1992)The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. (1993)How Getting the Facts Right Can Fuel Partisan‐Motivated Reasoning (2019)Political Misinformation (2020)Motivated reasoning and climate change (2021)The Handbook of experimental economics (1995)A Theory of Fairness, Competition, and Cooperation (1999)Is No News (Perceived As) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure (2021)A note on aggregating opinions (1978)Systematic Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects (1990)The concept of knowledge and how to measure it (2003)Hate Trumps Love: The Impact of Political Polarization on Social Preferences (2020)Gender stereotypes in deliberation and team decisions (2021)Beyond average: A method for measuring the tightness, looseness, and polarization of social norms (2023)
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References

  • 1971Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations1,228 cited
  • 1976Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions950 cited
  • 1967The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions202 cited
  • 1970Assessment and evaluation of subjective probability distributions109 cited

Cited by

  • 2014The Control Premium: A Preference for Payoff Autonomy159 cited
  • 2017Learning Together Slowly: Bayesian Learning about Political Facts159 cited
  • 2014Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums140 cited
  • 2013Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging135 cited
  • 2021Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs130 cited
  • 2013Eliciting Probabilities, Means, Medians, Variances and Covariances without Assuming Risk Neutrality78 cited
  • 1998Understanding variability in binary and continuous choice64 cited
  • 2007Prospect-theory’s Diminishing Sensitivity Versus Economics’ Intrinsic Utility of Money: How the Introduction of the Euro can be Used to Disentangle the Two Empirically57 cited
  • 2014Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries54 cited
  • 2016An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules47 cited
  • 2020

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Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities, risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments
44 cited
  • 2022Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution38 cited
  • 2013Belief Elicitation in the Lab36 cited
  • 2011Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study31 cited
  • 2009Preferences and Beliefs in a Sequential Social Dilemma: A Within-Subjects Analysis27 cited
  • 2020Replication: Belief elicitation with quadratic and binarized scoring rules26 cited